The world’s largest planning meeting no-one heard about

This article by New Zealand China Council Executive Director Alistair Crozier was originally published by the Post on 24 March 2026. Photo by Alexander Schimmeck on Unsplash.

The annual meeting of the world’s largest legislature took place this month in Beijing, with barely a ripple here in New Zealand.

To be fair, 3000 members of China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) dutifully supporting their leaders’ vision over 10 days of stage-managed meetings is not blockbuster entertainment.

But what the gathering lacks in scintillation, it more than makes up for in importance.  Each year the NPC receives the Chinese government’s performance self-appraisal for the last 12 months, via the Government Work Report of the Premier (Li Qiang), and approves its strategic goals for the coming year.   This year members also signed off on China’s 15^th five-year plan for 2026-30, a roadmap for the country’s medium-term priorities ahead.

As our largest trade partner and influential regional and global actor, New Zealanders owe it to ourselves to understand the key elements of China’s fundamental development blueprints and what they could mean for us.

A wider economic growth target

China has departed from a specific GDP growth goal (which it has always then achieved) by setting a target range of 4.5 to 5.0 % in 2026, “while striving for better in practice”.  This band approach reflects the uncertainty lying ahead as the country navigates what its Premier described as a “grave and complex landscape, where external shocks and challenges were intertwined with domestic difficulties and tough policy choices”.

China’s GDP growth has been slowing for several years – a shifting focus from quantity to quality of growth, the usual trajectory of developing economies achieving maturity, and recent unprecedented headwinds have all had an impact.  The 2026 target zone for a country in China’s situation is impressive.  But the wriggle-room it has allowed itself in the face of current unpredictability is worth noting.

The future looks bright…

The five-year plan underlines that China is determined to develop and integrate the new technologies it believes will transform its future economic prosperity.  The focus and resources it is applying can’t be overstated – like a player in a chess game, it is strategising far ahead.

China wants to raise the value add from core digital economy industries to 12.5% of GDP by 2030.  It will maintain annual R&D expenditure growth at 7%, and foresees a doubling of high-value invention patents.  AI is a particular focus, as the spearhead (or ‘lead goose’) for the country’s technology advancements.

China is pursuing these ‘new quality productive forces’ for three reasons:  It wants to use them to modernise traditional manufacturing and other sectors, to ensure they remain competitive and efficient as traditional factory floors of migrant workers become an image of the past.  It also wants tech sectors to be new industries in their own right. And in the face of geopolitical tensions and containment, it wants to become less reliant on others.

…but what about the present?

If that is the brave new vision for China, its current socio-economic reality is more challenging, as the economy falls off a decades-long wave of high growth that cannot be sustained and starts paddling to catch the next one.  In his report, Premier Li acknowledged the “formidable” task of transitioning to new growth drivers.

He also flagged the current “acute imbalance” between strong supply and weak demand (i.e. weak consumption), unemployment and low wages, a real estate market in a “period of adjustment”, and “local governments burdened by severe budgetary imbalances”.  The government knows exactly where its economic vulnerabilities lie, which is always a good starting point.

Some commentators have observed, however, that the 2026 Work Report fails to table any promising new solutions to tackle the problems identified.  There is mention of stabilising China’s overbuilt property market, issuing more local government bonds, and continuing domestic consumption stimuli like a subsidised buy-back scheme for home appliances.  But these approaches have already been tried, with mediocre results.  Some macro fiscal-financial policies have also been promised, but consumers rather than the state ultimately have to start spending.  There is a sense that there won’t be a flood of demand any time soon.

Fewer kids, older adults 

There are strong signs that the government wants to create a “childbirth-friendly society” in the face declining births.  Premier Li also highlighted new policies in 2025 which delivered one year of free preschool for 14 million children and childcare subsidies for 30 million.

At the other end of society, China’s average life expectancy reached 79.25 years, with the five-year plan setting a goal of 80 years by 2030 – not far below New Zealand’s estimated 83 years.

Supporting the elderly as the population contracts will be a tough challenge.  The government’s increase to the old-age pension of just 20 RMB per month (c.NZ$5.00) apparently underwhelmed many delegates – if so, it was a rare example of lawmakers breaking rank, and a clear indication that struggling households are hoping for more support.

Green is the new gold

Both the 2026 and five-year plans capture the incremental progress China is pursuing to develop a green economy, a target it genuinely believes is in the best future interests of its people.  It will pursue a 17% cumulative reduction of CO² emissions by 2030, similar to the 18 % set for the previous five years.  It plans to grow the proportion of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption from 21.7% in 2025 to 25% by 2030.  China is not resiling from its plan to peak its carbon emissions in or before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.

What it means for New Zealand

• No silver bullet solutions to boost domestic consumption. The market may be ‘about the same’ for New Zealand goods and services exports to China this year – gains are there to be had, but must be hard-won.

• Market demographics will evolve further: policies may not successfully reverse declining births, but life expectancy will increase, urbanisation will continue.

• Expect further exciting tech developments – EVs, wind and solar energy, AI, robotics. Provided our national interests are protected, there is exciting potential to harness solutions that boost New Zealand productivity.

• As both countries pursue green, sustainable economic growth there are areas where our respective national objectives to align – if we look for them.

Alistair Crozier is Executive Director of the New Zealand China Council.  The views expressed in this article are his own.